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Secularism or Catholicism? The Religious Composition of the United States to 2043

Skirbekk, V., Goujon, A., and Kaufmann, E. (2008). Vienna Institute of Demography

We project the religious composition of the United States to 2043, considering fertility differences, migration, intergenerational religious transmission and conversion by 11 ethnoreligious groups. If fertility and migration trends continue, Hispanic Catholics will experience rapid growth, expanding from 10 to 18 percent of the population between 2003 and 2043. Protestants could decrease from 47 to 39 percent over the same period...

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